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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Heavyweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Allen Frye Jr. won by KO/TKO Punches · round 1, 2:59

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Allen Frye Jr.vsRJ Harris

Model pick: RJ Harris (61.9%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 38 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Allen Frye Jr.: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data
  • RJ Harris: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickRJ Harris61.9%

Supporting the pick3

  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: RJ Harris
    Allen Frye Jr. 21.33, RJ Harris 11.00.
  • Striking defenseEdge: RJ Harris
    Allen Frye Jr. 36.0%, RJ Harris 56.0%.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: RJ Harris
    Allen Frye Jr. 11.00, RJ Harris 15.00.

Working against the pick2

  • Control seconds per roundEdge: Allen Frye Jr.
    Allen Frye Jr. 2:38, RJ Harris 0:10.
  • ReachEdge: Allen Frye Jr.
    Allen Frye Jr. 203 cm, RJ Harris 198 cm.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Allen Frye Jr. 11.0, RJ Harris 15.0. Edge: RJ Harris.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Allen Frye Jr. 21.3, RJ Harris 11.0. Edge: RJ Harris.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Allen Frye Jr. -10.3, RJ Harris +4.0. Edge: RJ Harris.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Allen Frye Jr. 38.4%, RJ Harris 57.7%. Edge: RJ Harris.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Allen Frye Jr. 36.0%, RJ Harris 56.0%. Edge: RJ Harris.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Allen Frye Jr. 0.00, RJ Harris 1.00. Edge: RJ Harris.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Allen Frye Jr. 0.00, RJ Harris 0.00.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Allen Frye Jr. 0.00, RJ Harris 0.00.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Allen Frye Jr. 2:38, RJ Harris 0:10. Edge: Allen Frye Jr..
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Allen Frye Jr. 0.00, RJ Harris 0.00.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Allen Frye Jr. —, RJ Harris 100.0%.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Allen Frye Jr. 0, RJ Harris 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Allen Frye Jr. 0, RJ Harris 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Allen Frye Jr. 0, RJ Harris 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Allen Frye Jr. 1, RJ Harris 1.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 18 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Allen Frye Jr.

UFC record 0-1 · 1 detailed UFC fights · Limited UFC Sample

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.8
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

RJ Harris

UFC record 1-0 · 1 detailed UFC fights · Limited UFC Sample

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab