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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Women's Strawweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Loopy Godinez won by U-DEC · round 3, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Loopy GodinezvsKetlen Souza

Model pick: Loopy Godinez (51.5%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 48 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Loopy Godinez: 15 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Ketlen Souza: 7 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickLoopy Godinez51.5%

Supporting the pick3

  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Loopy Godinez
    Loopy Godinez 0.98, Ketlen Souza 0.13.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Loopy Godinez
    Loopy Godinez 62.4%, Ketlen Souza 53.0%.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Loopy Godinez
    Loopy Godinez 76.6%, Ketlen Souza 53.6%.

Working against the pick3

  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Ketlen Souza
    Loopy Godinez 6, Ketlen Souza 3.
  • AgeEdge: Ketlen Souza
    Loopy Godinez 33.0 yrs, Ketlen Souza 32.0 yrs.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Ketlen Souza
    Loopy Godinez 49.4%, Ketlen Souza 57.1%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Loopy Godinez has more takedown production: 0.98 takedowns landed per round to Ketlen Souza’s 0.13.
  • Loopy Godinez completes more of their takedown attempts: 42.5% to Ketlen Souza’s 13.3%.
  • Loopy Godinez brings more wrestling volume: 2.29 takedown attempts per round to Ketlen Souza’s 1.00.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Loopy Godinez 21.6, Ketlen Souza 18.2. Edge: Loopy Godinez.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Loopy Godinez 19.3, Ketlen Souza 17.2. Edge: Ketlen Souza.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Loopy Godinez +2.4, Ketlen Souza +1.0. Edge: Loopy Godinez.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Loopy Godinez 49.4%, Ketlen Souza 57.1%. Edge: Ketlen Souza.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Loopy Godinez 62.4%, Ketlen Souza 53.0%. Edge: Loopy Godinez.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Loopy Godinez 0.02, Ketlen Souza 0.13. Edge: Ketlen Souza.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Loopy Godinez 2.29, Ketlen Souza 1.00. Edge: Loopy Godinez.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Loopy Godinez 0.98, Ketlen Souza 0.13. Edge: Loopy Godinez.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Loopy Godinez 42.5%, Ketlen Souza 13.3%. Edge: Loopy Godinez.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Loopy Godinez 76.6%, Ketlen Souza 53.6%. Edge: Loopy Godinez.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Loopy Godinez 1:22, Ketlen Souza 0:53. Edge: Loopy Godinez.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Loopy Godinez 0.27, Ketlen Souza 0.07. Edge: Loopy Godinez.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Loopy Godinez 22.2%, Ketlen Souza 50.0%. Edge: Ketlen Souza.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Loopy Godinez 0, Ketlen Souza 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Loopy Godinez 2, Ketlen Souza 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Loopy Godinez 7, Ketlen Souza 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Loopy Godinez 13:56, Ketlen Souza 10:46. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Loopy Godinez 15, Ketlen Souza 7. Edge: Loopy Godinez.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 6 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Loopy Godinez

UFC record 9-6 · 15 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker · Wrestling Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED89.7
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED71.6

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Ketlen Souza

UFC record 4-3 · 7 detailed UFC fights · Balanced / Hybrid

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING84.1
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING80.3

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Published
What happened
Godinez won a unanimous decision, 29-28 on all three scorecards. Souza appeared to have the more damaging striking through much of the first two rounds, while Godinez finally got the fight to the ground in the third. The official UFC recap noted that the verdict surprised many observers.
What the model got right
Fight Forecast had Godinez at just 51.5%, correctly identifying the matchup as essentially a coin flip. Her takedown activity, striking defense, takedown defense and submission activity provided the narrow model edge.
What the model missed
The final winner was correct, but the model did not have enough separation to claim meaningful superiority. Souza’s striking accuracy and offensive success made the fight every bit as competitive as the probability suggested.
Takeaway
This is a good calibration example rather than a prediction to victory-lap. A 51.5% pick landing should reinforce that near-50/50 forecasts are highly uncertain, not be counted as evidence of strong model insight.

Written after the result · updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC. Post-hoc interpretation; it does not change the locked forecast or the record.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab