Skip to content
FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Featherweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Andre Fili won by KO/TKO Kick · round 2, 0:22

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Andre FilivsKai Kamaka III

Model pick: Kai Kamaka III (54.9%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 45 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Andre Fili: 27 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Kai Kamaka III: 6 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickKai Kamaka III54.9%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Kai Kamaka III
    Andre Fili 36.0 yrs, Kai Kamaka III 31.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Kai Kamaka III
    Andre Fili 17.79, Kai Kamaka III 26.53.
  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Kai Kamaka III
    Andre Fili 13, Kai Kamaka III 3.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Andre Fili
    Andre Fili 20.84, Kai Kamaka III 29.13.
  • ReachEdge: Andre Fili
    Andre Fili 188 cm, Kai Kamaka III 175 cm.
  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Andre Fili
    Andre Fili 48.1%, Kai Kamaka III 33.3%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Andre Fili brings more wrestling volume: 1.48 takedown attempts per round to Kai Kamaka III’s 0.87.
  • Kai Kamaka III is more accurate: 59.1% of significant strikes to Andre Fili’s 37.9%.
  • Kai Kamaka III lands 26.5 significant strikes per round to Andre Fili’s 17.8.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Andre Fili 17.8, Kai Kamaka III 26.5. Edge: Kai Kamaka III.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Andre Fili 20.8, Kai Kamaka III 29.1. Edge: Andre Fili.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Andre Fili -3.0, Kai Kamaka III -2.6. Edge: Kai Kamaka III.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Andre Fili 37.9%, Kai Kamaka III 59.1%. Edge: Kai Kamaka III.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Andre Fili 49.5%, Kai Kamaka III 55.0%. Edge: Kai Kamaka III.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Andre Fili 0.10, Kai Kamaka III 0.07. Edge: Andre Fili.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Andre Fili 1.48, Kai Kamaka III 0.87. Edge: Andre Fili.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Andre Fili 0.68, Kai Kamaka III 0.47. Edge: Andre Fili.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Andre Fili 46.2%, Kai Kamaka III 53.8%. Edge: Kai Kamaka III.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Andre Fili 72.0%, Kai Kamaka III 55.0%. Edge: Andre Fili.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Andre Fili 0:41, Kai Kamaka III 1:01. Edge: Kai Kamaka III.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Andre Fili 0.06, Kai Kamaka III 0.07. Edge: Kai Kamaka III.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Andre Fili 30.8%, Kai Kamaka III 0.0%. Edge: Andre Fili.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Andre Fili 4, Kai Kamaka III 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Andre Fili 0, Kai Kamaka III 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Andre Fili 9, Kai Kamaka III 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Andre Fili 10:42, Kai Kamaka III 10:38. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Andre Fili 27, Kai Kamaka III 6. Edge: Andre Fili.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 11 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Andre Fili

UFC record 13-13 · 27 detailed UFC fights · Balanced / Hybrid

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED77.3
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED65.1

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Kai Kamaka III

UFC record 2-3-1 · 6 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING77.0
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING71.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Published
What happened
Fili knocked Kamaka out just 22 seconds into Round 2. The opening round was competitive, but Fili hurt Kamaka with a clean punch at the start of the second and then landed a head kick that ended the fight.
What the model got right
The model only gave Kamaka a 54.9% edge, correctly treating this as a very close matchup rather than a strong favorite. It also flagged Fili’s large reach advantage, better UFC win rate, stronger takedown defense and much lower strike absorption as meaningful concerns.
What the model missed
The slight Kamaka lean placed more weight on youth, activity, fewer UFC losses and striking defense than on Fili’s veteran striking advantages. Those concerns proved more important to the actual result than the factors producing Kamaka’s narrow model edge.
Takeaway
A 54.9% prediction should be communicated as a lean, not a confident pick. This fight is a good example of why the concern side of the model explanation can be nearly as informative as the final probability in close matchups.

Written after the result · updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC. Post-hoc interpretation; it does not change the locked forecast or the record.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab