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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Welterweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Niko Price won by KO/TKO Punches · round 1, 1:58

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Niko PricevsLeon Shahbazyan

Model pick: Leon Shahbazyan (56.7%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 43 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Niko Price: 21 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Leon Shahbazyan: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickLeon Shahbazyan56.7%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Leon Shahbazyan
    Niko Price 37.0 yrs, Leon Shahbazyan 30.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Leon Shahbazyan
    Niko Price 23.15, Leon Shahbazyan 6.00.
  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Leon Shahbazyan
    Niko Price 11, Leon Shahbazyan 1.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Niko Price
    Niko Price 21.22, Leon Shahbazyan 0.00.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Niko Price
    Niko Price 0.29, Leon Shahbazyan 0.00.
  • Submission attempts per roundEdge: Niko Price
    Niko Price 0.17, Leon Shahbazyan 0.00.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Niko Price 21.2, Leon Shahbazyan 0.0. Edge: Niko Price.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Niko Price 23.1, Leon Shahbazyan 6.0. Edge: Leon Shahbazyan.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Niko Price -1.9, Leon Shahbazyan -6.0. Edge: Niko Price.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Niko Price 43.3%, Leon Shahbazyan 0.0%. Edge: Niko Price.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Niko Price 48.3%, Leon Shahbazyan 45.5%. Edge: Niko Price.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Niko Price 0.12, Leon Shahbazyan 0.00. Edge: Niko Price.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Niko Price 0.98, Leon Shahbazyan 0.00. Edge: Niko Price.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Niko Price 0.29, Leon Shahbazyan 0.00. Edge: Niko Price.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Niko Price 30.0%, Leon Shahbazyan —.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Niko Price 50.0%, Leon Shahbazyan —.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Niko Price 0:37, Leon Shahbazyan 0:00. Edge: Niko Price.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Niko Price 0.17, Leon Shahbazyan 0.00. Edge: Niko Price.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Niko Price 75.0%, Leon Shahbazyan —.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Niko Price 4, Leon Shahbazyan 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Niko Price 2, Leon Shahbazyan 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Niko Price 2, Leon Shahbazyan 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Niko Price 8:17, Leon Shahbazyan —. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Niko Price 21, Leon Shahbazyan 1. Edge: Niko Price.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 20 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Niko Price

UFC record 8-11 · 21 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED76.1
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED81.2

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Leon Shahbazyan

UFC record 0-1 · 1 detailed UFC fights · Limited UFC Sample

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab