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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Women's Flyweight

Official forecast

Result

Draw or no contest — not scored

Result details unavailable.

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Ernesta KareckaitevsMelissa Gatto

Model pick: Melissa Gatto (52.7%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 47 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Ernesta Kareckaite: 3 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Melissa Gatto: 6 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickMelissa Gatto52.7%

Supporting the pick3

  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Melissa Gatto
    Ernesta Kareckaite 24.44, Melissa Gatto 12.00.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Melissa Gatto
    Ernesta Kareckaite 40.1%, Melissa Gatto 49.7%.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Melissa Gatto
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0.22, Melissa Gatto 0.53.

Working against the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Ernesta Kareckaite
    Ernesta Kareckaite 28.0 yrs, Melissa Gatto 30.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Ernesta Kareckaite
    Ernesta Kareckaite 28.11, Melissa Gatto 15.59.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Ernesta Kareckaite
    Ernesta Kareckaite 78.6%, Melissa Gatto 58.8%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Melissa Gatto brings more wrestling volume: 1.94 takedown attempts per round to Ernesta Kareckaite’s 0.33.
  • Ernesta Kareckaite completes more of their takedown attempts: 66.7% to Melissa Gatto’s 27.3%.
  • Melissa Gatto has more takedown production: 0.53 takedowns landed per round to Ernesta Kareckaite’s 0.22.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Ernesta Kareckaite 28.1, Melissa Gatto 15.6. Edge: Ernesta Kareckaite.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Ernesta Kareckaite 24.4, Melissa Gatto 12.0. Edge: Melissa Gatto.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Ernesta Kareckaite +3.7, Melissa Gatto +3.6. Edge: Ernesta Kareckaite.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Ernesta Kareckaite 40.1%, Melissa Gatto 49.7%. Edge: Melissa Gatto.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Ernesta Kareckaite 53.8%, Melissa Gatto 54.4%. Edge: Melissa Gatto.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0.00, Melissa Gatto 0.06. Edge: Melissa Gatto.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0.33, Melissa Gatto 1.94. Edge: Melissa Gatto.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0.22, Melissa Gatto 0.53. Edge: Melissa Gatto.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Ernesta Kareckaite 66.7%, Melissa Gatto 27.3%. Edge: Ernesta Kareckaite.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Ernesta Kareckaite 78.6%, Melissa Gatto 58.8%. Edge: Ernesta Kareckaite.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0:42, Melissa Gatto 1:21. Edge: Melissa Gatto.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0.00, Melissa Gatto 0.12. Edge: Melissa Gatto.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0.0%, Melissa Gatto 100.0%. Edge: Melissa Gatto.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0, Melissa Gatto 3. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Ernesta Kareckaite 0, Melissa Gatto 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Ernesta Kareckaite 1, Melissa Gatto 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Ernesta Kareckaite —, Melissa Gatto 13:16. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Ernesta Kareckaite 3, Melissa Gatto 6. Edge: Melissa Gatto.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 4 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Ernesta Kareckaite

UFC record 1-2 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED82.3
CardioEvidence: LIMITED88.6

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Melissa Gatto

UFC record 3-3 · 6 detailed UFC fights · Balanced / Hybrid

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.9
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING89.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab