Model pick: Tom Nolan (68.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 32 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Renato Moicano: 20 prior detailed UFC fights
Tom Nolan: 6 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickTom Nolan68.2%
Renato MoicanoTom Nolan
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Tom Nolan
Renato Moicano 37.4 yrs, Tom Nolan 26.6 yrs.
37.4 yrs26.6 yrs
Prior UFC win rateEdge: Tom Nolan
Renato Moicano 65.0%, Tom Nolan 83.3%.
65.0%83.3%
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Tom Nolan
Renato Moicano 1.06, Tom Nolan 4.12.
1.064.12
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
−Working against the pick3
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano 2.44, Tom Nolan -2.55.
2.44-2.55
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Striking defenseEdge: Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano 59.7%, Tom Nolan 48.5%.
59.7%48.5%
Head-strike shareEdge: Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano 73.0%, Tom Nolan 50.2%.
73.0%50.2%
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance43%
KO/TKO31%
Submission25%
Decision43%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Renato Moicano
Tom Nolan
KO/TKO
8%
23%
Submission
10%
15%
Decision
14%
30%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Renato MoicanoTom Nolan
Biggest statistical gaps
Renato Moicano scores more knockdowns: 0.05 per round to Tom Nolan’s 0.00.
Renato Moicano completes more of their takedown attempts: 40.4% to Tom Nolan’s 26.7%.
Renato Moicano has more takedown production: 0.49 takedowns landed per round to Tom Nolan’s 0.33.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Renato Moicano 17.9, Tom Nolan 21.2. Edge: Tom Nolan.
17.921.2
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Renato Moicano 15.5, Tom Nolan 17.1. Edge: Renato Moicano.
15.517.1
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Renato Moicano +2.4, Tom Nolan +4.2. Edge: Tom Nolan.
+2.4+4.2
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Renato Moicano 49.2%, Tom Nolan 45.4%. Edge: Renato Moicano.
49.2%45.4%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Renato Moicano 59.7%, Tom Nolan 48.5%. Edge: Renato Moicano.
59.7%48.5%
Knockdownsper round
Renato Moicano 0.05, Tom Nolan 0.00. Edge: Renato Moicano.
0.050.00
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Renato Moicano 1.21, Tom Nolan 1.25. Edge: Tom Nolan.
1.211.25
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Renato Moicano 0.49, Tom Nolan 0.33. Edge: Renato Moicano.
0.490.33
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Renato Moicano 40.4%, Tom Nolan 26.7%. Edge: Renato Moicano.
40.4%26.7%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Renato Moicano 64.3%, Tom Nolan 58.3%. Edge: Renato Moicano.
64.3%58.3%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Renato Moicano 0:57, Tom Nolan 0:49. Edge: Renato Moicano.
0:570:49
Submission attemptsper round
Renato Moicano 0.16, Tom Nolan 0.42. Edge: Tom Nolan.
0.160.42
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Renato Moicano 69.2%, Tom Nolan 40.0%. Edge: Renato Moicano.
69.2%40.0%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Renato Moicano 2, Tom Nolan 1. Style difference, no edge.
21
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Renato Moicano 7, Tom Nolan 1. Style difference, no edge.
71
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Renato Moicano 4, Tom Nolan 3. Style difference, no edge.
43
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Renato Moicano 9:27, Tom Nolan 10:36. Style difference, no edge.
9:2710:36
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Renato Moicano 20, Tom Nolan 6. Edge: Renato Moicano.
206
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 31 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 6 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (20 detailed fights; as of Sat 4 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED79.0
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED80.8
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (6 detailed fights; as of Sat 6 Jun 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING78.8
CardioEvidence: LIMITED67.9
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Tom Nolan defeated Renato Moicano by KO/TKO from elbows in Round 3 at 1:28.
What the model got right
The model correctly favored Nolan at 68.2%, identifying him as the more likely winner with meaningful confidence. The official result supports the winner-side call.
What the model missed
The frozen pick shown here is a winner prediction, not a documented method, round or technique prediction. Nolan’s third-round elbow finish should not be credited as something the model specifically forecast unless that claim appears in the frozen pre-fight evidence.
Takeaway
This was a solid winner pick, but winner accuracy and fight-mechanism accuracy must remain separate. Preserve the result as evidence for the Nolan side without adding a post-fight explanation the model did not make beforehand.
Written after the result · updated 1 Nov 2026, 21:42 UTC. Post-hoc interpretation; it does not change the locked forecast or the record.
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
