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FIGHT FORECAST
Chris Duncan
Fighter profile

Chris Duncan

“The Problem”

Lightweight · UFC record 6-2 · 8 detailed UFC fights · Last fight Sat 4 Apr 2026

Volume StrikerWrestling Heavy

Next bout: vs Drew Dober · UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit · Sat 14 Nov 2026

Fighter ratings

Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)80
Power76
Striking defense68
Takedown defense71
WrestlingProvisional measure79

Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (8 detailed fights; as of Sat 4 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026

R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.6
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING73.9

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

About these ratings

Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.

Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.

Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.

Profile

Height
178 cm (5'10")
Reach
180 cm (5'11")
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33

Last 3: W W W (most recent last)

Career statistics

Descriptive

8 detailed UFC fights · 16 rounds of recorded statistics. Exact totals from recorded UFC fights through Sat 4 Apr 2026; not opponent-adjusted and not model inputs.

Strikes landed20.1significant, per round
Strikes absorbed18.4per round
Striking differential+1.6per round
Takedown attempts2.00per round
Takedown defense55.6%of attempts stopped
Finish rate50.0%of UFC wins

Striking

Significant strikes landed per round
20.1
Significant strikes absorbed per round
18.4
Differential per round (landed − absorbed)
+1.6
Striking accuracy
46.2%
Striking defense (opponent strikes avoided)
52.3%
Knockdowns per round
0.12
Target: head / body / leg
60.4% / 22.7% / 16.8%
Position: distance / clinch / ground
82.2% / 6.9% / 10.9%

Per-round figures divide recorded totals by rounds with statistics. Shares are of significant strikes landed.

Wrestling and grappling

Takedown attempts per round
2.00
Takedowns landed per round
0.81
Takedown accuracy
40.6%
Takedown defense
55.6%
Control time per round
0:57
Submission attempts per round
0.19
Reversals per round
0.00

Attempts and landed takedowns are counted separately; accuracy is landed ÷ attempted.

Outcomes and durability

UFC record (W-L-D, NC)
6-2-0
Finish rate (wins by KO/TKO or submission)
50.0%
Wins by KO/TKO · submission · decision
0 · 3 · 3
Losses by KO/TKO · submission · decision
0 · 2 · 0
Knockdowns scored / suffered
2 / 0
Average fight time
7:49 (over 7 bouts)

Results as recorded by UFCStats. Fight time is elapsed time (completed rounds plus ending time) and includes draws and no-contests. These are outcomes, not biological measurements.

UFC fight history

Chris Duncan — most recent UFC fights
DateOpponentResultMethodEndEvent
Sat 4 Apr 2026Renato MoicanoLSUB Rear Naked ChokeR2 3:14UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Sat 6 Dec 2025Terrance McKinneyWSUB Anaconda ChokeR1 2:30UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Sat 2 Aug 2025Mateusz RebeckiWU-DECR3 5:00UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
Sat 22 Mar 2025Jordan VucenicWSUB Guillotine ChokeR2 3:42UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
Sat 28 Sep 2024Bolaji OkiWSUB Guillotine ChokeR1 3:34UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Show all 8 UFC fights
Chris Duncan — earlier UFC fights
DateOpponentResultMethodEndEvent
Sat 24 Feb 2024Manuel TorresLSUB Rear Naked ChokeR1 1:46UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Sat 22 Jul 2023Yanal AshmouzWU-DECR3 5:00UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
Sat 18 Mar 2023Omar MoralesWS-DECR3 5:00UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

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