Model pick: Chris Duncan (64.9%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 35 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Drew Dober: 27 prior detailed UFC fights
Chris Duncan: 8 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickChris Duncan64.9%
Drew DoberChris Duncan
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Chris Duncan
Drew Dober 38.1 yrs, Chris Duncan 33.5 yrs.
38.1 yrs33.5 yrs
Prior UFC win rateEdge: Chris Duncan
Drew Dober 55.6%, Chris Duncan 75.0%.
55.6%75.0%
Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Chris Duncan
Drew Dober 0.16, Chris Duncan 0.81.
0.160.81
−Working against the pick3
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Drew Dober
Drew Dober 0.19, Chris Duncan -0.66.
0.19-0.66
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Takedown accuracyEdge: Drew Dober
Drew Dober 17.0%, Chris Duncan 40.6%.
17.0%40.6%
Takedown prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Drew Dober
Drew Dober -0.04, Chris Duncan -0.26.
-0.04-0.26
Takedown prevention relative to opponents’ usual success.
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance51%
KO/TKO30%
Submission19%
Decision51%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Drew Dober
Chris Duncan
KO/TKO
15%
14%
Submission
2%
18%
Decision
18%
33%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Drew DoberChris Duncan
Biggest statistical gaps
Chris Duncan has more takedown production: 0.81 takedowns landed per round to Drew Dober’s 0.16.
Chris Duncan completes more of their takedown attempts: 40.6% to Drew Dober’s 17.0%.
Chris Duncan brings more wrestling volume: 2.00 takedown attempts per round to Drew Dober’s 0.96.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Drew Dober 18.1, Chris Duncan 20.1. Edge: Chris Duncan.
18.120.1
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Drew Dober 17.5, Chris Duncan 18.4. Edge: Drew Dober.
17.518.4
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Drew Dober +0.6, Chris Duncan +1.6. Edge: Chris Duncan.
+0.6+1.6
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Drew Dober 41.0%, Chris Duncan 46.2%. Edge: Chris Duncan.
41.0%46.2%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Drew Dober 53.1%, Chris Duncan 52.3%. Edge: Drew Dober.
53.1%52.3%
Knockdownsper round
Drew Dober 0.18, Chris Duncan 0.12. Edge: Drew Dober.
0.180.12
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Drew Dober 0.96, Chris Duncan 2.00. Edge: Chris Duncan.
0.962.00
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Drew Dober 0.16, Chris Duncan 0.81. Edge: Chris Duncan.
0.160.81
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Drew Dober 17.0%, Chris Duncan 40.6%. Edge: Chris Duncan.
17.0%40.6%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Drew Dober 58.2%, Chris Duncan 55.6%. Edge: Drew Dober.
58.2%55.6%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Drew Dober 0:32, Chris Duncan 0:57. Edge: Chris Duncan.
0:320:57
Submission attemptsper round
Drew Dober 0.02, Chris Duncan 0.19. Edge: Chris Duncan.
0.020.19
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Drew Dober 80.0%, Chris Duncan 50.0%. Edge: Drew Dober.
80.0%50.0%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Drew Dober 11, Chris Duncan 0. Style difference, no edge.
110
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Drew Dober 1, Chris Duncan 3. Style difference, no edge.
13
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Drew Dober 3, Chris Duncan 3. Style difference, no edge.
33
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Drew Dober 7:55, Chris Duncan 7:49. Style difference, no edge.
7:557:49
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Drew Dober 27, Chris Duncan 8. Edge: Drew Dober.
278
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 4 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Drew Dober
UFC record 15-11 · 27 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)76
Power90
Striking defense71
Takedown defense72
WrestlingProvisional measure59
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (27 detailed fights; as of Sat 7 Mar 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED82.2
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED71.5
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 6-2 · 8 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker · Wrestling Heavy
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)80
Power76
Striking defense68
Takedown defense71
WrestlingProvisional measure79
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (8 detailed fights; as of Sat 4 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.6
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING73.9
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
